The Politics Meister

Tuesday’s election results in the 46th district were shocking. Bill Ferguson trounced incumbent George Della. I thought Ferguson had a slim chance. I never could have predicted this trouncing. The Bill Cole endorsement foreshadowed what was about to happen.

Della was the establishment. He was the kind of incumbent that often runs unopposed. It is still sort of surreal that a newcomer came out of nowhere and trounced him. Ferguson worked hard and quickly gained very powerful friends once they saw that Della was in fact a paper tiger and could easily be beaten. I wish I cold have been there the moment when Della realized that the no-name running against him was no longer a no-name and was in fact a serious threat. I wonder which one of his houses he was at when he first realized that this election was going to be a lot different than his usual ones?

Incumbents use their name recognition to help build a reliable voting base that will blindly vote for them year after year. The same familiarity that breads mindless followers can also be used against an incumbent by a creative opponent who has the ability to tap into voter frustrations. If you can convince voters that familiarity is caused by boredom and lack of progress and that change is the only thing that can fix this problem then you will have taken a big first step toward unseating the incumbent.

Bill Ferguson used his teaching connections to set up a powerful and effective street team. I assume that his team’s presence on the streets of Baltimore gained the attention of some behind the scenes players. He used one of the establishment’s fundraisers and was able to generate a lot of money for his campaign. He put the money to good use with some of the best “attack” mailing I have ever seen. He was not afraid to point out Della’s typical politician qualities that so many people are tired of.  Ferguson’s mailings implied that a vote forFerguson was a vote against the tired old Baltimore political way.

Victorious campaigns are still about generating money unfortunately . I am not going to sit here and tell you this was a total insurgent rebellion against the establishment, but incumbents need to worry about scenarios like this one. A no-name can use a combination of a powerful street team, a desire for change amongst many voters, and powerful allies who greatly dislike the incumbent to successfully trounce the George Dellas of Baltimore. I never thought Rikki Spector could be defeated in the 5th city council district until today. Ferguson has created a blueprint for getting rid of her. A young energetic Jewish candidate needs to pop up on the 5th district scene in 2011 with a lot of young supporters who will knock on many doors. Once the supporters get the attention of numerous people then the candidate should make friends with powerful benefactors who greatly dislike Spector. They probably will find the candidate if he or she is doing things the right way.  Once the money and the street team are taken care of then the anti-Spector allies will start to awaken and come out from all over the place. Keep the momentum and the hardcore revealing mailings going and you will be able to win.

Some are going to say that these scenarios are sell-out scenarios. In theory a person might have to compromise beliefs in order to raise large sums of money and gain powerful benefactors.  I know Bill Ferguson and I feel like he is not going to compromise his beliefs now that he has gained power. He did what he had to do in order to win. I would not touch the establishment if I ran for office again, but in all likelihood I would have zero chance to win if I did that (like when I ran in 2007). 100% idealism does not work in Baltimore.

Some are going to say that Ferguson is now part of a political machine. Patrick Turner, Bill Cole, and Stephanie Rawlings-Blake were all at his victory party. There were many people there with O’Malley green on them. It is pretty obvious who Ferguson will endorse in the 10th district, for mayor, and for city council president in 2011 now that he has won. Will he be a cog in O’Malley’s machine? Will he blindly follow O’Malley? I do not think he will do these things. If he becomes a mindless cog then I guess you can call him a sell out. I don’t believe he will sell out, then again I am the idealistic guy who came in 5th place in 2007 so I could be totally wrong about all this.

The Ferguson endorsement by Ed Reisinger may have saved Reisinger from suffering a Della type defeat in 2011. I assume remnants or the Ferguson street team will be resurrected in 2011 to help Reisinger take on Terry Hickey and whoever else appears on the 10th district scene. It would not shock me if mayor Rawlings-Blake allows the 10th district to be redrawn to help Reisinger. Remember that districts are about to be redrawn since this was a census year.

I think Bill Cole made a great strategic move. He showed that his name has clout beyond the 11th district and he allied himself with what will be seen as a young energetic winner. I believe that at the very least Bill Ferguson had behind the scenes help from team O’Malley associates (again I need to point out that the MAYOR OF BALTIMORE was at his victory party).  If “behind the scenes help from team O’Malley associates” helped get rid of a Baltimore establishment just imagine what straight up out in the open serious support directly from the O’Malley Machine will be able to do for Bill Cole if he runs for City Council President in 2011? O’Malley’s associates and allies are very powerful and well organized in Baltimore. I believe this more than I ever have before in my life. Stephanie Rawlings-Blake will win in 2011 and Bill Cole will be on her ticket and will become the next City Council President of Baltimore. I have seen all that I need to see to convince me of this.

Click on the photo for larger version that shows Stephanie Rawlings-Blake sitting at the bar behind a victorious Bill Ferguson.